The October 2008 edition of the CTC Sentinel has a very interesting article written by David Kilcullen a leading theorist in counter-terrorism strategies entitled “ Field Notes on Iraq’s Tribal Revolt Against Al-Qa’ida.” His articles focus in on the tribal uprising in Iraq against Al-Qi’ida in late 2006 and 2007. His analysis of the complexities of Iraqi society and the different levels of competing power structures remind me of the non-specific analytical tool utilized by Dr. Don Beck in SDI. Although not an expert on counter-terrorism, Dr. Beck offers some of the same type of thinking as Mr. Kilcullen. In his article, Mr. Kilcullen states that the
“Iraqi tribal leaders represent a competing power center with the formal institutions of the state and the tribes themselves are a parallel hierarchy that overlaps with the formal government structures and political allegiances at every level.
He continued, “ For most Iraqis, tribal affiliations exist alongside other strands of identity –religious, ethnic, regional and socio-economic.”
Also noted by Kilcullen is the relationship between religious sentiment and custom in Iraq.
Kilcullen’s explanation of the various dynamics at play in Iraq help us better understand what is working and not working in terms of our counter-terrorism/ counter-insurgency strategy in Iraq and in many cases why.
He concluded his article with some key lessons for the coalition forces, which include:
1. It is important to treat local tribal irregular forces as local allies and not employees.
2. Build relationships with local leaders based on honor and trust
3. Expect leaders to act in their groups interests
4. Find the key influencers who cross over local power networks (tribe, business, government, mosque)
5. Do not push tribal shaykhs, relationships and agreements need to develop organically.
6. Develop communication channels to enable deconfliction
7. Understand distributed power and non-classical hierarchy power structures.
Having trained with Dr. Beck and been certified in SDI 1 and SD2, and seeing a lecture Don gave to the World Bank post 911 on the complexities found in the tribal worlds of Afghanistan entitled “Stratified Democracy: The Cultural Dynamics of Nation Building in Afghanistan”
, I would think that they are on a similar train of thought.
Kilcullen does not seem to have developed a modeling system through which his work is articulated like Beck, and he does not offer the depth of complexity of Beck’s work and unlike Beck, his work is mostly empirical and not theoretical but they both seem to be expressing a similar train of thought, which attempts to show and explain the complexities found in any particular socio-cultural system. This train of thought is a very important and a much needed contribution to the world of counter-terrorism. If utilized, it allows decision takers to move beyond binary thinking i.e. black and white thinking, which is over-utilized and counter-effective and into varying degrees of complexity of thought. It is that complexity of thought which would allow the United States to take better decisions in its future counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency strategy. By Michael D. Ostrolenk
From HSLEADER
