The February 2006 Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (CTC ) Report "Stealing Al-Qa'ida's Playbook" by Jerret Brackham and William MCCants gives insight into Al Qaida's long term strategy and short terms tactics. The authors cite Abu Bakr Naji, an Al-Qa'ida strategist, who wrote the book "Management of Barbarism." (online, 2004) who has laid out his thinking on how Al-Qa'ida will proceed to accomplish their goals.
It is a shame such thinking as is put fourth by the authors in terms of how to counter the Al-Qa'ida's strategy has not reached decision-makers in the Bush Administration. It obvious from the authors 6 recommendations that the Administration has not been listening for the most part: the U.S. seems to be doing exactly what Al-Qa'ida needs to move their plans forward, as opposed to what is necessary to thwart Al-Qu'ida. The Administration should end their 'war on terror' and restart the war against Al-Qa'ida. I have included a short summary below of the 6 recommendations as well as my commentary following each recommendation.
1. The U.S. should avoid direct large-scale military action in the Middle East. The U.S. should operate clandestinely and use proxies. (Iraq is obviously an example of this strategy. The U.S. should seek counsel from special mission analysts who can show the benefit of special missions, "hearts and minds programs," and the use of proxies.)
2. The U.S. must be aware of creating new theatres for jihad. It must work to redirect alienation among Muslim youth that is fueling recruitment. (The Karen Hughes listening tour just wont cut it. We need experts who understand the culture(s), the language, the region(s), and how best to work with local populations. Lawry Chickering's Educate Girls Globally is an excellent example of this type of effort.)
3. The U.S.must use local surrogates to thwart the establishment of stateless regions and work to create zones of order. (The U.S. seemed to have understood this concept with our special missions in Afghanistan at the beginning of our war against Al-Qa'ida and the Taliban. It would seem that this lesson has already been forgotten. New leadership is seen on rise within Al-Qa'ida
4. The U.S. must fund a media campaign that focuses on turning the
Muslim public opinion against Al-Qa'ida which would include showing
their attacks against fellow Muslims. This needs to be done behind the
scenes. (This would not be about sharing Brittney Spears' music with
the Muslim world, the wonders of our so-called liberation of Iraq, or
our intentionally weak peace efforts between Israel and the
Palestinians but with a well thought through effort to educate the
Muslim world about Al-Qa'ida.)
5. The U.S. must carefully and covertly support Muslim religious
leaders and movements that can effectively compete with Al-Qa'ida. (The
U.S. needs to be very careful in implementing this recommendation. We
do not want to help create the next group that threatens our allies or
us. We do not want to make the same mistake as the Israeli's who help
create Hamas to counter the PLO or the U.S. who helped create the
Muhajadine in Afghanistan to fight the Soviets and then left them
trained, armed and ready to export their ideology around the world.)
6. The U.S. should consider creating a think tank whose purpose is to understand Al-Qa'ida. From the inside out. What to they say, think and do. ( This think tank should have been creating in the 1970s to deal with the terrorism by various groups we faced then. If we had been on the ball and working to understand how these groups think, operate and work, we could have been in a much better position over time to deal with them. This lesson has still not been learned as exampled by Mike German, former FBI Counter-Terrorism Undercover Agent in his book: "How to Think Like A Terrorist.")